Too-Early-To-Call Results from Arizona’s Primary Election Day: Primary Validations, Shocks, and Comeback Stories in the Waiting

By Alexander Lomax

The first election results dropped from the night, and absolutely nothing is set in stone at this moment, but there is definitely plenty of certainty and more than enough question marks to keep us hitting refresh on our browser constantly.

First, Scottsdale. One councilmember is likely advancing and a few incumbents are fighting for their seats. Scroll down a bit for a significant local race, statewide primaries as well as a saucy Congressional primary.

Whitehead in Scottsdale’s pole position at the first count

Solange Whitehead is the clear leader tonight, pulling 23,001 votes in today’s first tabulation. Arizona law sets the majority in a multi seat primary by dividing total votes cast by the number of seats, then halving the result. Scottsdale had three seats and 124,974 votes cast across eight candidates. The math produces a clean shortcut. With three seats, a candidate needs 16.67 percent of all votes. Whitehead sits at 18.40 percent, an excellent position to be in.

Plenty of ballots remain uncounted. The threshold will rise as they land, but so will her total. She would need to collapse by nearly a third among remaining voters to fall back. Certainly not impossible, but she’s in an enviable position regardless.

A couple incumbents are fighting from behind, but later Republican turnout favors them (and their bloc)

Here is where the night turns strange. If Whitehead is declared elected, two seats remain unfilled. State law advances twice the number of unfilled seats to November. Two seats means four candidates, not five.

Bob Littlefield currently sits sixth. He trails Ethan Knowlden by 643 votes, and conservative incumbent Barry Graham is only 125 votes above Knowlden. Under those rules Littlefield is out.

BUT this battle is so very far from over. Reports have stated that late turnout locally has favored Republicans by as much as 40 points. That means a late round insurgency by Littlefield potentially overcoming Knowlden. With Republicans Carroll and Sloan out, the local GOP is certain to circle the wagons and coalesce behind the conservatives still in the fight.

That would lead us to three conservatives vying against one Democrat (Raoul Zubia) fighting for two seats. And that bodes well for Mr. Zubia, but a hornet’s nest has been kicked, and his path won’t be an easy one.

Axon’s election interference wasn’t as effective as it needed to be

At least with this first count, there is one real standout: that in a conservative-ish city, the slate of conservatives seemed to be pushed down together, with one of the liberals leaping above the fray. It means that the Axon interference tipped the early votes, but that is not how this will end up. Based on turnout numbers the conservative votes are highly likely to dominate the later counts. They did not run up the number as much as they needed to.

The 3^rd Legislative District GOP primary: George Khalaf stands alone

The 3^rd legislative district covers much of Scottsdale as well as Fountain Hills and Cave Creek: maybe not crimson red but a strong Republican district. The one standout in the four-person GOP primary for two seats was George Khalaf, with a lead of over seven points above the two closest competitors, Jay Schlum and Cody Reim, who sit a mere 121 votes apart. That’s the sort of standout performance in a strong red district that is remembered and lends itself to something more. There’s been speculation that he’s a strong candidate for party leadership, perhaps even a future Speaker of the House. These results won’t quiet that chatter.

Knocking on Doors Defeats National Party Support on the Democratic Side

In one of the few Democratic primaries of note to watch, and one that specifically covers most of the readership of our humble publication, Amish Shah looks as though his well-documented habits of knocking on more doors than any candidate around will prevail him to victory once more, holding a 5,713 vote and nearly 10 point lead against DCCC-supported Marlene Galán Woods.

He will almost certainly go on to face former Arizona Cardinals kicker Jay Feely in November. Feely is currently up a commanding 14.2% and over 9,000 votes against Joseph Chaplik in the GOP primary for the same seat.

By the way, we wrote specifically about this primary. I think we kinda nailed it?

Biggs cruises while Schweikert torches a safe seat

Andy Biggs is running away with the Republican nomination for governor. He holds 74.9 percent to David Schweikert’s 12.4 percent in the first count.

Schweikert gave up a congressional seat for this. He has served in the House since 2011. He traded that for 12 percent and a 33,000 vote deficit. The rest of the field combined for roughly the same share he managed. Ambition is not a strategy.

Three races, one identical margin

Warren Petersen leads at 54.5 percent. Kimberly Yee leads at 53.7. Alexander Kolodin leads at 54.6. Three separate contests, three margins within a point of each other. Republican primary voters moved as a bloc. Candidate quality barely registered. These are first count numbers, but uniformity like that rarely unwinds.

The Assman lost again

Petersen leads Rodney Glassman by 4,655 votes for attorney general. Arizona has now rejected Glassman under two party registrations. He was the Democratic nominee against John McCain in 2010, then switched to Republican and kept chasing statewide office. He has yet to win one. At some point the common denominator stops being the electorate.

Horne runs out of road

Treasurer Kimberly Yee leads incumbent Tom Horne by 3,937 votes for superintendent. Horne has held statewide office across three decades. Republican voters may have just ended that run.

Kolodin leads former state party chair Gina Swoboda by 4,618 votes. She ran the AZGOP through 2024 and 2025. She could not beat a Freedom Caucus litigator who sued over the last two election results.

It’s a lot to take in right now

…and depending on whether or not it’s worth staying up for, I might be re-writing this at 11 PM, or wake up very validated. Either way, plenty has been decided but there’s still a lot of fun and bickering to be had. Buckle up!