GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT IS TIED FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 2015.
• The generic congressional ballot is tied at 42% among a sample of N=800 registered voters in a survey conducted September 1st-September 8th with a margin of error of +3.46%.
• The last time the generic congressional ballot was tied was back in October 2015, also at 42%.
• The last time this question was asked was in April 2020 where voters favored the Democratic candidate by 6 points (41% GOP Candidate/47% Dem Candidate).
• The GOP lead has moved a net 13 points with men, while women remain unchanged.
• In 2020, the generic Democrat led among three age groups. Now they only lead among one, 18-34 year olds. Given that the youngest age cohort usually drops off the most in turnout, this is shaping up to be a real challenge for Democrats.
• The difficulty for the Democratic Party can be seen in the movement of the following subgroups:
o The Republican lead among white voters has doubled since April 2020.
o Independents have moved a net nine points, and college grads have moved a net 11 points towards the Republican Party.
o Significant gains have also been made among suburban and rural voters who have each moved in favor of the Republican party by 5 & 6 points, respectively.
o Women 45+ is an important subgroup to pay attention to, they are tied at 43%.