With just five days remaining until Arizona’s 2024 primary election, let’s take a closer look at how Republicans and Democrats are performing across the state. Focusing first on the Republicans, a total of 1,156,580 GOP ballots have been requested. Of these, 1,089,498 are from registered Republicans and 67,082 from Independents. These numbers surpass the total requests from both 2020 and 2022, which were 1,035,288 and 1,059,348, respectively. Currently, Republicans have a 32.7% ballot return rate, while Independents have a 49.2% return rate, resulting in an overall return rate of 33.7%.
At this stage in the election, GOP ballot returns across the state are ahead of 2022 but are behind 2020. In 2020, returns at this time were 426,571, compared to 375,714 in 2022. So far in 2024, a total of 389,458 GOP ballots have been returned.
Now looking at the Democratic side, total ballot requests stand at 1,063,267, with 1,008,909 from Democrats and 54,358 from Independents. This exceeds the totals from both 2020, which had 1,044,288 requests, and 2022, which had 1,041,271 requests. Democrats are returning their ballots at a 29.4% rate, while Independents are returning at a 48.9% rate, resulting in an overall return rate of 30.4%
At this stage in the cycle, Democratic returns are lagging behind both 2020 and 2022. In 2020, Democratic returns were 439,383, and in 2022 they were 368,745. Both figures are notably higher than the current returns in 2024, which stand at 322,984.
