AZ Congressional District 8 Republican Primary Poll: Blake Masters With Strong Support Early

Data Orbital is pleased to announce the results of its latest mixed-mode survey of likely 2024 Republican Primary Election Voters in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District. The survey was conducted from October 19th to 21st. The survey measured support for potential candidates in Arizona’s 8th District Republican Primary, following the announcement from Congresswomen Debbie Lesko that she is not seeking reelection.

The results of the survey show that if 2022 Republican Senate nominee Blake Masters were to enter the race, he would do so with 33.2% support. This is a commanding 14.8% lead over his closest challenger, 2022 Republican Attorney General nominee Abe Hamadeh (18.4%). Rounding out the tested field were Arizona Speaker of the House Ben Toma (6.8%) and State Senator Anthony Kern (5.5%). 31.5% were undecided.


Masters also leads the field with 92.7% name ID and a higher Net Favorability (26.0%) than any other candidate polled. Hamadeh had 67.0% name ID and 22.9% Net favorability. Voters were also more likely to say that Masters was conservative (58.9%) than Hamadeh (41.6%) The data shows that, if Masters were to enter the race, he would have a strong, front-running position.

Pollster George Khalaf had this to say about the latest results, “These results clearly indicate that should he enter the race, Blake Masters would be in a clear front-runner position. His nearly ubiquitous name ID, especially compared to his opponents, coupled with the connections gained from running for statewide office, would make for a very steep and expensive hill to climb for anyone trying to overtake him.”

This poll of 450 likely primary election voters was commissioned by Masters Exploratory and conducted through a combination of live phone survey and text-to-web that collected 32% of the results from live caller landlines, 32% from live caller cell phones, and 36% via text-to-web. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.71% with a 95% confidence interval. Respondents were weighted on a number of different demographic figures based on prior primary election voter turnout figures. The poll was conducted from October 19 – October 21, 2023. The questions released are verbatim from the survey provided to respondents. Toplines and demographic data can be found here. Crosstabs for this survey can be found here.