In our series where we break down the election results from Scottsdale, we have already looked at the mayoral race as well as the ballot propositions. For our third of three pieces, we will take a look at the Scottsdale City Council races, typified by major upheaval as both incumbents on the November ballot were ousted (after newcomer Jan Dubauskas avoided a run-off and won a seat in August).
First, the high level results: Adam Kwasman and Mary McAllen ousted incumbents Tammy Caputi and Tom Durham. Since Tom Durham essentially fell on the sword and asked voters to support Caputi and McAllen (read more about that here) we will leave him off of our analysis. Kwasman received over 36% of the vote and McAllen nearly 35%, while Caputi garnered 33% of the vote.
Even though it is technically a non-partisan race, it really wasn’t. Kwasman, the former state legislator, was the obvious Republican and McAllen the obvious Democrat, and both local parties touted their respective candidates as such, utilizing a “single shot” strategy and telling voters to only use one of their two votes for council.
While Caputi used to be a Democrat, she switched her registration to independent/unaffiliated…Mayor Ortega made the same move before his run for mayor in 2020. While generally seen as a wise move in a Republican-heavy city, the outcome for both has instead been to be alienated by both party apparatuses and left to fend for themselves. While this in isolation doesn’t necessarily explain their losses, it certainly didn’t help.
The partisan breakdown of votes follows the traditional trends for both Kwasman and McAllen, as Kwasman flourished in north Scottsdale and McAllen in central and south Scottsdale. Caputi’s support base is a bit more varied, with some of her top precincts being north of Shea Blvd (albeit east of the Loop 101) as well as significant support around Old Town.
However, perhaps the most interesting insights come when we analyze the top 10% precincts for both Borowsky and Ortega and cross reference the city council campaign performance in those. In the top 10% precincts for Borowsky, Kwasman dominated with 43.3% of the voter while Caputi and McAllen were both under 29% of the vote. Meanwhile, in the top 10% precincts for Ortega, McAllen led the pack with 34.7%, Caputi at precisely 30% and Kwasman not too incredibly far back at 24.1%.
The conclusion? In Republican precincts Kwasman ran the score up in a way that McAllen and Caputi couldn’t emulate. The Republicans were far better at convincing their voters to utilize the single shot strategy, but McAllen’s support from the local Dems was enough to bring her up to 2nd place and secure the second seat.