Now that the primaries are behind us, it’s time for us to take a look at how the November general elections may shake out, and we’re going to start with Legislative District 4, which covers most of Scottsdale from Camelback Road to the 101 as well as Paradise Valley.
This is one of the more interesting battles in Arizona because it is a swing district in the truest sense of the word: the House seats are split between Republican Matt Gress and Democrat Eric Meyer (you can read why he’s in this seat here). Former Rep. Kelli Butler and Madison School District board member Karen Gresham will be looking to take both of those seats (Meyer is not running for election to this seat), and Gress will be running alongside former Scottsdale City Council candidate Pamela Carter for both seats on the Republican side.
Perhaps most notable in this case is that both primaries were uncontested, but there were very significant undervotes for both Gresham and Carter, as Butler had about 1,500 more votes than Gresham and Gress had a more stunning 4,000 vote lead over Carter (even though there were only two choices for each). It’s hard not to see that flowing over into the general election.
Meanwhile, Matt Gress sat with a daunting $257K cash on hand (COH) as of July 13th. Butler, who got a later start, sits at a healthy $180K.COH, but perhaps the biggest surprise is Karen Gresham holding a surprising $167K COH. Meanwhile, Carter sits at only $32K. Therefore, the most likely outcome seems to be Gress and Butler again splitting the district, but if there is a bit of a blue tide in this election, Butler and Gresham both going through wouldn’t be a shocking development.
Meanwhile on the Senate side, Democrat Christine Marsh looks to hold her seat. She ran unopposed in the primary, whereas Scottsdale Unified school district board member Carine Werner handily beat perennial candidate Kenneth Bowers, setting up a battle between two educational advocates with extremely differing views on the subject.
Marsh exited the July 13th reporting cutoff with an imposing $257K COH pile, while Werner only has $119K. As this will be one of the relatively few competitive Senate seats that Democrats will need to hold onto to tie the Senate or even take a lead, those cash piles will likely go up on both ends, But considering Marsh’s financial lead, relatively likable demeanor and Werner’s reputation for being a bit of a bomb thrower on the SUSD board, unless there ends up being a red tide this election it appears that Marsh will likely hold onto the seat.