While as of the time of writing, there are still a few votes to count in Arizona and we do not have full confirmation of how every race will play out, we do have quite a bit of insight as to how our area may change or not change.
For instance, one of the most interesting and perhaps surprising results came at the Maricopa County level, where for the first time since 2012, Republicans have won every one of the countywide races. In a reversion back to the past, Jerry Sheridan, previously the deputy to former Sheriff Joe Arpaio, decisively beat Tyler Kamp to become our next County Sheriff. One could presume that the office will take a more proactive stance against illegal immigration, especially since national results have shown a much stronger appetite for that.
Another significant change, even if not reflected in party registration, will happen at the County Recorder’s office. Moderate Republican Stephen Richer was previously in charge of county elections but was ousted in the primary by MAGA conservative Justin Heap. Heap narrowly beat out Tim Stringham in the general election, meaning that conservatives won’t have anyone else to blame if there are hiccups in our elections, as there usually are.
Governor Katie Hobbs was undoubtedly looking closely at our state legislative races in the hope that Democrats might gain control of one or both chambers of the legislature, or at least a tie, so she can wield some power (or avoid problems) at the Capitol, but it seems as though those hopes were dashed. In the Senate, incumbent Democrat Christine Marsh has lost her race in District 4 (which covers much of Scottsdale and Paradise Valley) against Carine Werner, and as such it looks as though Democrats will go from 14 seats to 13 seats in the 60-seat Senate.
The House of Representatives paints an even bleaker picture for the Democrats. While it looks like Democrats will pick off one seat in District 17 with Kevin Volk poised to win one seat, they look likely to lose at least three seats. District 4 gained prominence yet again, with Kelli Butler unable to keep one House seat for the Dems as Matt Gress will return to the House along with Pamela Carter. Democrats have also lost the one House seat they held in District 13 (Chandler/Gilbert) as well as one in District 16 in Southern Arizona. Additionally, incumbent Democrat Seth Blattman also holds an incredibly perilous 68 vote lead in District 9 (Mesa) at the time of writing.
The best case scenario is that Democrats went from being one vote short of a tie in the House to three votes short and perhaps four. Along with a two vote deficit in the Senate, it’s safe to say that Governor Hobbs will have an extremely difficult time pushing through anything resembling an agenda.
There are some silver linings for those who are left-of-center however. The initiative to preserve abortion rights up until the time of viability passed with over a 60% vote, showing that while voters prefer conservative values on the whole, they still respect a woman’s autonomy over her own body. But past that, it was an unequivocally excellent election for Arizona Republicans.