Regular readers of this blog (or other political nerds who simply haven’t come across the Arizona Progress & Gazette yet) understand that the race to control both the Arizona House of Representatives and the Arizona Senate is an incredibly tight and important one. With mere one seat advantages in both the House and Senate, Arizona Republicans’ control of both chambers (and with it, quite a bit of power) teeters perilously close towards tipping to the Democrats (especially with Democrat Katie Hobbs as Governor).
Yet as is the case with the Electoral College, where only a handful of states (including our own) control the destiny of the Presidency, only a handful of legislative districts are balanced enough to truly be in play this election cycle. And wouldn’t you know, District 4, which covers part of Scottsdale and includes Paradise Valley and swaths of Phoenix, is one of those swing districts.
And wherever there is power to be had, the sort of power inherent in winning swing districts, there is a lot of money on the line. A whole lot.
First there’s Matt Gress, the Republican defending his seat, and his campaign finance reports look closer to someone running for statewide office, having raised an eye-popping $583K to date with a nearly-as-impressive $281K cash on hand still, even after all of the street signs have been raised, most advertising buys having been made, and numerous mailers having gone out. At this point it seems as though he will exit the election with a bunch of money in the bank, which may well support a run for higher office.
The Democrats are no slouches however; current Representative Kelli Butler is not far behind, having raised $485K but still sitting on $111K in the bank. Challenger Karen Gresham has raised a similarly impressive $475K and still has $77K in the bank. Republican Pamela Carter is being left in the dust, having raised a still solid $158K with $77K in the bank.
All told, this means that $1.155 MILLION has been spent in order to occupy one of the two Representative seats. While we have no data to compare that with, it would not be shocking if this was the most expensive Arizona House race in history.
For those of you who are in district, perhaps the brightest light at the end of the tunnel? In a couple weeks all of the mailers, ads, and canvassers will all be done, and life can resume as normal.