Amish Shah is a slight favorite to win Arizona’s 1st Congressional District on Nov. 3, with analysts saying Democrats hold the edge. If he does, Republicans will start hunting for a 2028 challenger almost immediately.
Amish Shah. Photo Credit: Arizona Republic
Nobody has declared anything. Still, Jay Feely’s primary win and a deep bench of local officeholders make for an interesting shortlist. As far as public reporting shows, most of these names have not been floated.
The Rematch Option
Jay Feely. The former NFL kicker is the Trump-endorsed 2026 nominee and won his primary with about half the vote. He has name recognition and money. A close loss could invite a rematch, though 2028 turnout will look different.
The Scottsdale Bench
Lisa Borowsky. The Republican-affiliated mayor beat David Ortega with 54% in 2024 and has a citywide win to her name. However, her seat is also on the 2028 ballot, so she would have to choose.
Jan Dubauskas. The at-large councilwoman is an attorney and former insurance executive who ran for state senate in 2022. Her council seat is also up in 2028.
Adam Kwasman. The councilman is a former state representative who ran for this seat’s predecessor in 2014. He finished third. He faces the same 2028 timing problem.
Christian Serena. The Scottsdale native and wealth advisor became a household name as the lone Planning Commission vote against Axon’s mega-apartment complex plans. He stood on principle and drew the company’s fire for it. Residents have not forgotten, and that goodwill could be political currency.
Phoenix and County Hall
Jim Waring. The Phoenix councilman has represented northeast Phoenix, part of CD1, since 2011. He is a former state senator who lost a 2010 congressional primary.
Tom Galvin. The county supervisor chaired the board in 2025. He said last fall he is not interested in Congress. Politicians change their minds, though, and his seat is also up in 2028.
Matt Gress. The state representative and former Ducey budget director has survived a swing district. He did face July questions about out-of-state lobbying work, which he says is a non-issue.
The Statehouse Set
Alexander Kolodin. The Scottsdale-area state representative is the GOP nominee for secretary of state. If that bid falls short in November, he becomes a free agent.
Joseph Chaplik. The former Scottsdale state representative and Freedom Caucus member finished second in the primary with 35.7%. He already has a base.
Gina Swoboda. The former state party chair first announced for this seat before switching to secretary of state. She lost that primary to Kolodin but remains a Trump favorite.
Veterans and Wildcards
David Schweikert. The longtime congressman lost the governor’s primary badly and is not seeking re-election. Name ID is his, but a comeback looks unlikely.
John Trobough. The outlier. The former tech CEO took 14.5% in his first race and pledged at least $1 million of his own money. Every cycle seems to produce a wealthy outsider, and 2028 will likely deliver another.
The seat is sure to stay a top target. After Nov. 3, watch who starts showing up at Scottsdale events.
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