By Tim Stevens
Congressman David Schweikert
Now that the dust has settled in the primary elections last month we are looking forward to some local races that may have an outsized impact on our area and ones that are certain to grab your attention come October. In this case we look at who will represent most of our area in Congress: the race for Congressional District 1.
We have spoken various times about the players in this race, ranging from the misdeeds and missteps of incumbent Congressman David Schweikert (you can read our coverage here), who coasted in the Republican primary. Far more interesting was the Democratic primary (read our coverage here), where in a very crowded field with a handful of strong candidates current state legislator Amish Shah beat out the rest of his competitors for the privilege of taking on Schweikert.
This district has gotten the attention of both the DCCC and the RCCC, the Congressional groups who are focused on winning elections in swing districts, for a few cycles now and for good reason. Dems have seen this as a winnable seat, one that leans Republican in registration but with the sort of affluent, well-educated Republicans that the more primal, MAGA-esque wing of the GOP has been turning off. While Democrat Hiral Tipirneni put up a good fight against Schweikert in 2020, coming within about 18,000 votes of victory, Democrat Jevin Hodge came within 3,200 votes of winning this seat in 2022, and Democrats now smell blood in the water as various lawsuits and missteps pile up around Schweikert.
Perhaps most notable? Word around the rumor mill is that the RCCC will not be making a full-throated effort to defend this seat for Schweikert, leaving him to his own devices while the DCCC continues to see this as a winnable seat worthy of resources.
On the money side, Amish Shah nearly cleared out his campaign account in his successful attempt to win his primary, as his campaign finance reports showed him with $216K in the bank with a $163K loan outstanding. Meanwhile, Schweikert had the luxury of not being seriously challenged in his primary (i.e. not having to spend down his funds), and he sits with a healthy $1.55M in the bank.
That said, Shah will raise plenty of more funds and have much bigger backing. And as we have spoken about before, he is a door knocking warrior, and thousands of voters who have never met David Schweikert before will meet Amish Shah, which will make a profound difference.
So, prediction? Shah wins in an absolute squeaker (under 5,000 votes), and the national GOP moves on from David Schweikert, licks their wounds, and tries again for this seat with someone new in four years.