By Bill McInturff
Public Opinion Strategies’ Election Night Poll shows the 2014 election was defined by major dissatisfaction about the direction of the country, the economy, and President Obama:
1. On Election Day, roughly two-thirds (65%) of voters said the country is headed off on the wrong track.
2. The weekend before the election 64% of voters said they were dissatisfied with the state of the U.S. economy.
3. In the national exit polls, President Obama’s job approval was 44% on Election Day, exactly matching his job approval on Election Day in 2010.
4. By a roughly two-to-one margin, people say they voted as a signal to oppose rather than to support President Obama (17% support/32% oppose).
5. Republicans enjoyed a six point edge on the generic vote for Congress (52% saying they voted for the Republican candidate for Congress compared to 46% saying they voted for the Democratic candidate for Congress).
6. In the national exit polls, Republicans carried White men by an even wider margin in 2014 than in 2010 (64% saying they voted for the Republican candidate/33% saying they voted for the Democratic candidate this cycle compared to 62%/34% in 2010).
7. While not quite as high as in 2010, Republicans captured White women by a comfortable double-digit margin this cycle (56% saying they voted for the Republican candidate/43% saying they voted for the Democratic candidate in 2014 compared to 58%/39% in 2010 according to national exit polls).
8. Republican positive fortunes were spurred as well by high dissatisfaction among Independents and double-digit support on the generic Congressional vote. Among Independents on our Election Day survey:
o 65% say the country is headed off on the wrong track.
o A majority disapprove of the president’s job (37% approve/59% disapprove).
o A double-digit majority voted Republican for Congress (53% Republican candidate/37% Democratic candidate).
9. Confirming recent off-year trends, the majority of voters (60%) say they made up their mind on which Congressional candidate to vote for in September or earlier. Republicans carried these early deciders by a wide margin (57% Republican candidate/41% Democratic candidate) , while losing the 24% of voters who made up their mind in October (44% Republican candidate/53% Democratic candidate) and the 15% who made up their mind on the few days before the election or Election Day (42% Republican candidate/51% Democratic candidate).
10. Early voting continues to increase with the highest number of people in a mid-term (34%) saying they voted before the election. Republicans broke even with early voters (50% Republican candidate/50% Democratic candidate) and carried Election Day voters by eight points (52% Republican candidate/44% Democratic candidate).
Why the Elephants are Dancing: Understanding the November 2014 Election
By Bill McInturff