Tipping (Over) Point For State Rep. John Kavanagh?

Other titans of Arizona’s illegal immigration wars have fallen. Andrew Thomas. Russell Pearce. Even Sheriff Arpaio’s last election was close. And although lesser known the smart, affable State Rep. John Kavanagh is likely next on the target list.
Word is that determined moderate Republican and former Scottsdale Planning Commissioner Jeff Schwartz is set to challenge the House Appropriations Chairman as he seeks a seat in the State Senate. And due to some unluck and unforced errors by Kavanagh it could be close.KAVANAGH
It didn’t have to be. After all Kavanagh won his 2012 election handily. That’s because while undoubtedly conservative he’s been an advocate for the district, stepping up for the district’s land preservation efforts and tourism industry. Such constituent service has been important since simply labeling oneself a “conservative” even in primaries isn’t a routine recipe for success.
Just ask the numerous aspirants that tried to unseat Carolyn Allen all those years. Or Michele Reagan’s successful moderate profile replacing her. For every Ugenti win over a Jennifer Peterson there’s been more moderation and less stridency when it comes to Scottsdale representation, whether at City Hall or the State Capitol.
But last year Kavanagh thought necessary to legislate matters related to the LGBT community and bathrooms. This year he will have to carry the yoke of SB1062. And just today the Arizona Republic talked about his purported racial insensitivity at a recent roast.
Few at the State Capitol serve with more passion, intellect and previous service (he was a New York City police officer) than Kavanagh. And his influence with his peers has made a difference fighting for the district. Having a wife who serves as mayor of Fountain Hills  is also a plus.
But just as Kavanagh, Gov. Brewer and all Republicans got lucky with SB1070 in 2010 this year’s legislative roulette wheel does not seem as inclined with SB1070.
The best bet remains on Kavanagh. But the odds for an upset have improved.