No Champagne in the Huddle Mr. Duval

There has been considerable chatter about the Rasmussen Poll that shows Democrat Fred Duval and Doug Ducey in a dead heat for Arizona Governor.
Keep in mind that Rasmussen has been trying very hard to make up for its gaffe in predicting a Romney win over Obama. Perhaps Rasmussen has been trying too hard.
According to this article in the Guardian, Rasmussen is trying to correct past sins by leaning a bit too far to the left. For example the article notes that “Obama’s average net approval in Rasmussen’s polling since re-election is +10.6pt, which is nearly 4pt higher than the other pollsters’ results.”duval
Rasmussen is also using past exit polls to weigh its surveys. The article continues, “The exit polls, though, had Democrats with a 6pt party identification advantage. Sure enough, Rasmussen now weights its polling to 38% Democratic and 32% Republican – the same exact spread as the exit polls gave.”
Some more interesting facts on the Rasmussen poll.
In 2010, voters under 40 made up approximately 20 percent of the Arizona electorate; yet, in today’s Rasmussen poll, they have the age bracket at 25 percent.
Arizona voters over 65 made up nearly 30 percent of the midterm electorate in 2010, and in Rasmussen’s sample, they make up only 26 percent.
This particular Rasmussen poll samples 36 percent registered Republicans despite the fact that they accounted for 43 percent of 2010 general election voters. In addition, Rasmussen’s poll includes voters with no party affiliation at 36 percent despite the fact that they only made up 27 percent of the 2010 electorate.
Penance can be a wonderful thing, but it’s not a luxury for pollsters. Rasmussen’s attempts to compensate for tilting right in years past won’t be corrected by tilting left.