Justin Heap. Photo Credit: Arizona Mirror
The July primaries in Arizona had a lot of predictable outcomes, but it did hold one big shocker: incumbent Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer became a victim of not towing the party line of stolen elections, and Republican primary voters chose state legislator Justin Heap to go on to the general election in November to face off against veteran and former JAG attorney Tim Stringham. So how will November play out for this race?
First, it’s important to note that this race will serve as a bit of a proxy on the voters’ views of the security of elections. Led by former-President Donald Trump, the GOP’s clarion call in many locales has been pumping up the idea of “stolen elections” and inserting doubt in the security and sanctity of our elections. In Maricopa County this is particularly strange since this is now the second time in a row that the incumbent Recorder has lost re-election, and one would assume that if elections were stolen the person in charge of them would rig them in favor of himself, but leaving that aside for the moment…
This is a talking point that is extremely partisan, and independents have not signed onto it by and large, leading to an uphill road for Heap in an otherwise right-leaning county.
Regarding money, one big advantage that Stringham has had has been the lack of a contested primary, meaning that he didn’t have to spend down his funds. Granted, his fundraising was sluggish up until the pre-primary reports, reporting only about $30K Cash on Hand (CoH), but reports indicate that Republicans’ selection of Heap has been a gigantic fundraising boon for Stringham since then. Heap’s pre-primary report showed $87K CoH, but much of that was likely spent down in the last week and a half of the primary.
Polling has been performed recently and it showed a 3-point lead for Stringham with a significant slice of the electorate unsure, and as such the main battle will again be over independents, the main slice of undecided voters. Another factor to consider however is independent expenditure money; Turning Point USA has been rumored to eye this seat and as such will likely pour considerable resources to benefit Heap.
As for the likely outcome? All things told, this race will likely be too close to call, with a margin of likely less than two points in either direction. But for the sake of making a prediction, we’ll see it will be Stringham by a nose.