By Alexander Lomax
Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs. Photo Credit: Associated Press
As the cliche goes, success has many fathers but failure is an orphan, but in politics these days failure often seems to have many parents. Many on the political left have been looking for answers as to why Trump won yet again, and there have been a number of fingers pointed at intangibles. Many seem to believe that racism, sexism, or general bigotry are to blame, but that is the sort of simplicity that makes for good clickbait but is rarely moored in truth, at least not materially.
Data shows a different story than the prevailing narrative however, as it often does. Surveys have shown that quite a few Trump voters could be pulled off, and in a state like Arizona that can have massive implications locally all the way to the White House. The aforementioned survey identified 11% of those voters nationally being flippable with a heavier concentration in swing states, meaning that Arizona is likely to be a hot-bed for those voter types.
The Grand Canyon State’s transformation from reliable red to purple battleground mirrors broader national trends affecting Trump’s coalition. Arizona’s increasingly diverse electorate, particularly among Latino voters who showed surprising Trump support in 2024, offers insights into how demographic shifts might influence future elections, but also opportunities for Democrats.
Arizona’s 2024 results revealed Trump’s ability to expand his coalition beyond traditional Republican strongholds, particularly among Hispanic voters and working-class communities in manufacturing areas. However, continued population growth from California and other blue states, combined with younger voter registration, creates uncertainty about whether this coalition remains sustainable. However, Democrats gave an opportunity to provide inroads for Republicans, mainly through their embrace of socially progressive politics.
These surveys demonstrated that amongst blue collar workers, economically progressive ideas are surprisingly popular. Increased wages, better standards of living, and a reigning in of the excesses of capitalism all work very well with this coalition. However, fair or not, Democrats made social justice issues the center of their messaging much of the time outside the heat of election season. They were not known as the party of living wage jobs as much as the party of Woke, and especially considering that Hispanic voters tend to lean more socially conservative than white liberals and less focused on identity politics, this messaging was always doomed for electoral failure.
What can the Democrats do? In the words of James Carville, “It’s the economy, stupid.” Focus on economic improvement for the working class, allow for a hand up instead of a hand out, and don’t be woke scolds. Arizona’s Democrats have largely stayed away from the worst excesses of social progressivism, but unfortunately viewpoints are often formed by what happens at the national level, and there’s not much they can do about that. But a laser focus on the economy and on issues that legitimately improve the lives of others combined with a questionable economic outlook nationally, and the Democrats have a door open to succeed in 2028.
And please, for the love of God, never write or say the word “Latinx” ever again.