Breaking: New Poll Shows Scottsdale Mayor David Ortega Leads 2024 Competitors

The Arizona Progress & Gazette’s commitment to keeping you informed goes beyond reporting. We also want to know your take on local government. Just ahead of Scottsdale Mayor David Ortega’s State of the City address, the Arizona Progress & Gazette commissioned a poll on how Scottsdale residents feel about their city, the people running it, and a list of high-profile issues. Today we share the results of what is likely to be a likely Scottsdale Mayor’s race featuring incumbent David Ortega and former City Councilmember Linda Milhaven, likely joined by another former City Councilmember and 2020 mayoral finalist Lisa Borowsky.

Arizona-based Data Orbital conducted the survey of 350 likely Scottsdale voters from January 17th through the 19th. The pollster was the most accurate firm that polled Arizona political races in the 2020 presidential election cycle and is top rated by FiveThirtyEight.

Whether or not the city is headed in the right direction is a bit of a coin toss as the numbers are tighter than previous surveys we’ve tracked. According to the Data Orbital poll, 41.8% believe Scottsdale is headed in the right direction while 39.5% believe the city is headed in the wrong direction. Of those who feel Scottsdale is going the wrong way, 56.1% blame too much development, and 21% blame traffic and too many people moving to the city.

Now getting to the results…Given Mayor David Ortega’s traditional aversion to outsized development projects, it’s no surprise his favorable rating remains positive at 42.5% while 28.7% view him unfavorably. But like the “right direction” question above, Ortega’s favorability ratings have slipped a bit from what previous surveys over the past year have shown.

On the mayoral ballot test itself, the survey asked if the August 2024 Mayoral election were held today, who would get the most support?

In a three-way match between Ortega, former Scottsdale City Councilmember Linda Milhaven, and former Councilmember Lisa Borowsky, Ortega has a sizable lead.

Ortega 34.3%
Milhaven 7.3%
Borowsky 12%
Undecided 46.4%

When sked who voters preferred when the race was Ortega versus one other, the results were as follows. Note that if no one gets 50% + 1 in the August 2024 Primary, the top two candidates will move into the November General Election.

Ortega 38.2%
Borowsky 19.7%
Undecided 42%

Ortega 38.1%
Milhaven 18.2%
Undecided 43.7%

Ortega is doing better than the City Council. As an entity the Scottsdale City Council’s favorable rating is 36% while 33.7% view the Scottsdale City Council unfavorably with 26% having no opinion.

The poll sampled the favorability ratings of a cross section of the City Council. Those tested were rated as follows:

Tami Caputi: 18.8% favorable/ 16.4% unfavorable/ 55.3% neutral or no opinion.
Tom Durham: 14.4% favorable/ 16.5% unfavorable/ 58.9% neutral or no opinion.
Betty Janik: 19.3% favorable/ 14.4% unfavorable/ 56.2% neutral or no option.

Look for more survey results tomorrow and Wednesday on other major issues facing Scottsdale in 2024.