You almost certainly have heard about the bombshell event that is making news all around the country (and putting our state in a decidedly negative light): the Arizona Supreme Court ruled that a territorial-era abortion law from 1864 will soon become the prevailing law of the state. This now will make performing an abortion a felony except to save the life of a woman, punishable by a minimum of two years in prison.
The reactions have come in swift and heavy from all corners of the political sphere, nearly all of them varying degrees of negative. Democrats were expectedly angered, but the response from Republicans has not at all been in line with the traditional pro-life stance of the party, likely because all reasonable people understand how egregiously draconian it is and how far out of line it is with mainstream views on the subject.
The PR response from Republicans was significant, with Trump weighing in saying that it went too far and calling on Republicans to fix it, and former Governor Doug Ducey expressing his displeasure with it. There is a degree of irony to these statements, as Trump’s Supreme Court nominees ushered in the overturning of Roe vs. Wade, and Ducey’s infamous expanding and stacking of the Arizona Supreme Court and his subsequent nominees voted for it. Certainly they didn’t expect things to go in this direction, but unintended consequences have a way of being unintended.
Republicans understand that if this goes on until November, it will be nuclear for their party; it will give energized and angry Democrats and moderate Republicans incentive to vote en masse for Democrats, and may be the turning point for the Presidential race (which Trump clearly understands). So last week turned into an intense scramble of attempting to fix it, but not without politicking, because of course.
Democrats attempted to pass legislation to protect the right to choose, but being the minority party has its downfalls. While they were able to get Republican Matt Gress on their side, the fact that the Democratic caucus is down two Representatives due to the myriad resignations and lag time before appointees take their seats, it was doomed from the start. Combined with the fact that Republicans would rather create their own solution rather than give a win to the opposition party, it was shot down.
So what happens next? The GOP (with probable pressure from former President Trump) will need to push a solution through the legislature, probably something close to the 15-month ban that had been the law of the land previously. But with a one vote margin in both the House and the Senate, there is absolutely no margin for defectors or anti-abortion hardliners. Meanwhile, the initiative to codify abortion rights up to eight months of pregnancy is almost certain to be on the ballot, and if your average Arizonan has the choice between one or the other, one would assume that they will vote yes on the initiative, and an energized voting base is likely to flip the House, Senate, or both, and Trump’s election chances are seriously imperiled.
There will be some seriously intense conversations in the Republican caucus over the next few weeks. Arms will be twisted,,,hard, The fate of the majority is at risk.