Scottsdale Election Update: Council Order Flips, Shah Wins AZ-1, and LD4 Democrats Leading

By Alexander Lomax

At both the national and state level, this election was about as shocking as they come. Everyone knew that it was likely to be a good night for Democrats, but absolutely no one predicted the level of the blue tide, nay, tsunami that rolled in. But even if it was joyous evening for Arizona Democrats writ large, the Scottsdale city council race is going a different direction.

Scottsdale City Council: A Plot Twist

Polling by one of Scottsdale’s most notable organizations 45 days ago showed this to be a likely nail biter. And it is. Remember Raoul Zubia’s lead on election night? It’s gone. Michelle Ugenti-Rita now leads with 47,849 votes, and incumbent Barry Graham sits just behind her with 47,827. That is a gap of only 22 votes out of more than 107,000 ballots counted. Both candidates are currently in line for the two open seats. The tiny gap reflects the complete uniformity of conservative voters choosing both of them with extremely few split ballots. Indeed, Republicans outnumbered Democrats 3:1 among those voting on Election Day and as we saw in 2024 Republicans and now-Mayor Borowsky and now-Councilman Adam Kwasman surged mightily as additional ballots were counted.

Zubia has slipped to third with 45,949 votes. He trails Graham by 1,878, after leading him by 1,308 earlier. In other words, the race swung by more than 3,000 votes overnight. Meanwhile, ballots are still being counted, so Zubia has not run out of road. However, the trend is not on his side, and every new batch matters. Solange Whitehead already won her seat in July, so these are the last two chairs.

While this election sure ain’t 2024 that’s dangerous math for Zubia who, like Graham and Ugenti-Rita, should be commended for good, tough campaigns.

SUSD’s $375 Million Bond Is Winning, but the Lead Is Shrinking

Scottsdale Unified asked voters to approve $375 million in bonds for school buildings and equipment, repaid through property taxes. It is the district’s first bond request since 2016. The district estimates the cost at about $157 a year on a $607,000 home.

Voters are saying yes, 48,493 to 40,568, or 54.4% to 45.6%. That is a lead of about 7,900 votes. The numbers will get closer as more ballots are counted.  However this is an encouraging sign that despite school closures voters are not ready to give up on a district that is a heartbeat of the community. And stay tuned for more news soon on the SUSD front as district leadership will have the opportunity to thank voters with a bold, innovative move.

SUSD Governing Board: Johnson Leads, Carney Holds Second

Separately, voters are choosing two members for the Governing Board from three candidates. Jennifer Johnson leads with 37.6%. Conservative incumbent Amy Carney is second at 32.6%. She is ahead of Jeanne Beasley by 3,267 votes, a gap that has grown overnight. The top two win. What has been a frequent 3-2 split on school matters with conservatives in the minority will now become 4-1.

Shah Wins AZ-1

Democrat Amish Shah leads Republican Jay Feely 52.6% to 45.4%, a margin of more than 22,000 votes. Libertarian Monica Alponte has 2.0%. Shah’s lead has tightened as late ballots arrived, but that cushion is a big one.

In fact, Shah lost this district narrowly in 2024. David Schweikert’s exit to run for governor gave him a second shot. Feely arrived with Donald Trump’s endorsement, yet in following the national trend that endorsement was more of an anchor than a buoy.

And the Republican 2028 primary battle royale starts now. That’s a race that will shake up Valley politics.

LD4: Democrats Hold On to Every Lead

Democrats still lead all three Legislative District 4 races. In the state Senate, Aaron Lieberman leads Carine Werner 53.0% to 47.0%, a margin of about 6,300 votes. In the House, Tammy Caputi and Karen Gresham lead Republican incumbents Matt Gress and Pamela Carter. Gresham’s edge over Gress is about 4,300 votes, as the margin looks too daunting, even for a Republican rock star like Gress. It shows when the national mood is such defying it down ballot is nearly impossible

Those margins are narrower than they were on election night, so they are worth watching. Meanwhile, Caputi, who was ousted from the Scottsdale council in 2024, is on track for a comeback.

A Rising Star in LD3

And though LD3 with its lopsided Republican registration advantage was a foregone conclusion Scottsdale should celebrate the win of George Khalaf as one of its newly minted state representatives. A conservative who combines common sense with talent will serve the community and his now minority caucus with distinction.

While Arizona will now be contending with what a truly Democrat-run state looks like, Scottsdale is again proving that local politics matter locally.