Map courtesy of Experience Scottsdale
As you very likely know, when you vote for a Scottsdale city councilmember, you don’t vote for one in your district. There are no voting districts in Scottsdale; all councilmembers are voted in “at large”. That might change for the 2024 election, as a local group will attempt to put the issue on the ballot for a public vote.
3-2-One Scottsdale will be attempting to make a three-district system in Scottsdale (south, central and north Scottsdale) with two councilmembers per district. As it stands currently with the at-large system, there is a significant concentration of councilmembers in north Phoenix. More precisely, the only voting member of city council right now who lives south of Indian Bend Rd. is actually Mayor Dave Ortega.
It is worth mentioning that both Valley cities significantly larger than Scottsdale, Phoenix and Mesa, both have council districts. There are three cities which are near Scottsdale in population as per the 2020 census: Chandler, Gilbert and Glendale. Glendale is the only city of the three that has adopted a district system.
So who would stand to win and lose from this potential proposition? Some of the dynamics are quite clear: with 6 councilmembers living north of Indian Bend Rd., under this proposition a maximum of 4 councilmembers could live north of the road. This would set up some potentially interesting matchups for members who are not termed out. It is safe to say that this is not an ideal situation for those councilmembers. Additionally, voters in north Scottsdale would likely be catered to slightly less under this scenario.
Also, political consultants would also take a hit. Council races have gotten incredibly expensive in recent years, as candidates need to convince all of Scottsdale of their worth. In this scenario, with candidates only having to reach out to 1/3rd of the territory, fundraising needs drop precipitously (something future candidates would likely appreciate).
As for winners, it would be a significant win for Mayor Ortega, who has had this idea in his sights for a while now, and would get to follow up the successful Scottsdale General Plan vote with another trophy for his mantle. Additionally, the voters of south Scottsdale would finally have regular representation, and would likely be courted significantly every election instead of being an afterthought, as they are for many candidates.
It certainly makes sense; Scottsdale is no longer a small town, and the balance of representation has been out-of-whack for a while. But considering that there are significant interests who would be negatively impacted, it won’t pass without a significant fight. The fights for and against Prop 463 will likely pale in comparison to the warfare this will generate.