Why yes, we did just finish an election, and the new president (same as the old president) was just recently inaugurated. But a good portion of the electorate is already hoping to fast forward four years, so why not take a far-too-early look at what 2028 might look like? Thankfully, recent polling takes a look at how things might play out.
First, it’s worth noting that barring an amendment to or the complete disregard of the Constitution, we will see a new president after the 2028 general election. As a reminder as per the Constitution, presidents are limited to two terms, and they don’t need to be consecutive. While many progressives seem to be afraid of Trump disregarding that and anointing himself Forever King, this concern likely sits somewhere between weird and unhinged.
Notable in this poll is the “if the 2028 primaries were held today” question. Democrats apparently are comfortable with losing yet again, as 41% of voters said that they would vote for Kamala Harris. Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg and Tim Walz are all next, getting between 6-8% of the vote. In all likelihood, most voters likely weren’t extremely familiar with anyone except Harris, so Harris was the default choice. 16% were unsure.
On the Republican side, the exact same dynamic is at play, with JD Vance getting 39% of the vote. Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, and Ron DeSantis came in the next three positions, getting either 8 or 9% of the vote. 18% were unsure who they would vote for.
Perhaps one of the most interesting dynamics captured in this was the ever-changing landscape of how people consume information. 23% of voters reported getting information about Donald Trump from podcasts or livestreams, and a whopping 72% of those people saw him on the Joe Rogan podcast. 30% of people who saw him on a podcast or livestream said that it influenced their vote a great deal. While the numbers for Harris were significantly less (likely because her handlers dissuaded her from going on the podcast with the most reach in the world), it’s clear that 2028’s contenders will have to navigate new media more deftly than Harris did.
Another notable outcome is favorables versus unfavorables, and on the Republican side Marco Rubio seems to be on top in that regard, at least insofar as government positions go. With 39% in favor of him in a leadership role within the administration versus 30% against, his +9% is the best in that field, and his role as Secretary of State will set him up for significant visibility (but he would very likely have to fight JD Vance to get the ring however).
That said, four years is a long ways away, and so many things can change in that time. But for those who were unhappy with how the electorate voted and may want to use any reason to think about four years, here’s at least your first glance.