by Hugh Lytle for Governor
MEMORANDUM
To: Supporters and Key Stakeholders
From: Max Fose, General Consultant and Bo Harmon, Campaign Manager
Re: The Path to Victory for an Independent Candidate in Arizona
Arizona Is Now an Independent State
According to the Arizona Secretary of State, as of January 2026:
- 1,550,556 registered Republicans (35.8%)
- 1,219,616 registered Democrats (28.2%)
- 1,561,853 registered Independents or third-party voters (36%)
Independents are now the largest voting bloc in the state.
Proposition 140 in 2024, which would have ended partisan primaries, received 42% of the vote. In a three-way race, 42% is a winning coalition.
The National Proof Point: Michigan
In Michigan, independent candidate Mike Duggan is currently polling at approximately 26% in early ballot tests.
This demonstrates that voters across the country are open to credible independent alternatives. Arizona presents even stronger structural conditions for this type of candidacy.
The Issue Environment Favors an Outsider Focused on Affordability
When Arizona voters were asked the most important issue facing the state, they responded:
- Daily expenses: 31%
- Government accountability: 17%
- Cost of health care: 13%
- Cost of housing and rent: 13%
- Immigration: 7%
- Crime: 6%
Three of the top four issues are affordability related. Governor Hobbs is upside down on costs and affordability at 44% favorable to 48% unfavorable.
Voters Are Ideologically Moderate
25% identify as a 5 (moderate) on a 1-10 scale.
18% identify as a 4 or 6.
76% of Independents identify as a 4, 5, or 6.
Additionally, 60% of voters want both parties to move to the center and find common ground solutions.
Ballot Test Shows Room to Consolidate
On a Fav/Unfav scale, “a politician willing to work with both sides of the aisle” had a 78% favorability rating.
When asked to choose a candidate bio/profile with the following choices
- A career politician with experience in the US Congress. 19%
- A career politician with experience in statewide office 35%
- A candidate with an accomplished business background who has not held elected office before 25%
- Unsure 20%
Bio Test Was Strong
Once voters were exposed to the candidate’s biography and positioning as a pragmatic, straight-talking business leader focused on affordability and accountability, the response was highly favorable.
Voters responded positively to business experience, independence from party machines, and emphasis on practical problem solving.
Weak vs Weird
Voters are fatigued by extremes.
They view one side as ineffective and weak on affordability. They view the other side as erratic and weird.
The contrast is clear:
Not weak.
Not weird.
Just serious.
The Strategic Math
- 36% registered Independents
- 42% voted against the current primary system
- 60% want governance to move to the center
- 76% of Independents self-identify as moderate
If we reach 42% in a three-way race, we win.
Conclusion
Arizona voters feel disconnected from their government. The Republican Party is internally divided. Democrats face dissatisfaction over economic management.
Independents now outnumber both. The electorate wants affordability, accountability, common ground, and competence.
A well-funded independent candidate positioned as a pragmatic business leader focused on everyday costs has a clear path to victory.