Handicapping the Elections: Contested Primaries in Statewide Races

By Alexander Lomax

The Arizona Governor’s Race Narrows to Two (plus Hobbs)

Karrin Taylor Robson’s exit in February cleared the Republican gubernatorial field down to Andy Biggs and David Schweikert. Both are sitting members of Congress. Both will face off on July 21.

Biggs holds a commanding financial edge. His campaign reports roughly $2.7 million raised for the cycle and $1.1 million cash on hand. Schweikert, who entered the race later after dropping his congressional reelection bid, has raised closer to $900,000 with around $300,000 in the bank.

Disclaimer: these are the Q1 numbers, and the extremely important Q2 financial reports aren’t due until July 15th, so things may materially change. That said, Schweikert has never been an exemplary fundraiser, so the number flipping is unlikely.

Andy Biggs. Photo Credit: Club for Growth

Biggs brings real strengths: endorsements from President Trump, the late Charlie Kirk, and Turning Point Action, plus more than 30 current or former state legislators. He has led every published primary poll, some by wide margins. His weakness is electability chatter. Some Republican operatives worry his profile echoes Kari Lake’s, a base favorite who twice lost statewide general elections.

Schweikert counters with a genuine free-market resume and a reputation as a deficit hawk. His drawback is timing, money, and real grassroots passion. He joined months after Biggs and still trails badly in cash and organization.

Attorney General Field Comes Down to Money and Trust

The Republican primary for Attorney General pits Senate President Warren Petersen against perennial candidate Rodney Glassman. Petersen’s committee has raised roughly $1.4 million this cycle, aided by leftover funds from his legislative campaigns. Glassman claims a larger war chest, north of $2 million cash on hand, but a large share came from loans he made to himself rather than grassroots donors.

Warren Petersen. Photo Credit: Wikipedia

Petersen’s case rests on substance: 14 years of legislative experience, endorsements from Andy Biggs and law enforcement groups, and a clear policy focus on crime and border enforcement. Glassman leans on personal wealth and relentless self-promotion, but that self-funded advantage comes with baggage. Coconino County prosecutors are investigating him for allegedly accepting campaign contributions above legal limits. He has also switched party registration multiple times over the years and lost his last bid for this same office in 2022. For anyone who follows Arizona politics, he’s been a running joke for a solid decade, colloquially known as the Assman.

Rodney Glassman. Photo Credit: Wikipedia

The Takeaway

Biggs enters the final stretch as the clear favorite. Trump’s endorsement, Turning Point’s spending, and a consistent double-digit polling lead give him real momentum heading into July 21. This contest is done, and it’s only a matter of how much Biggs wins by, and if there is a handshake agreement consolation prize waiting for him.

Petersen looks positioned to win the Attorney General primary as well. His fundraising has closed the gap, his endorsements run deeper within the party, and voters have likely been largely tipped off to the nature of Rodney Glassman and his desperation to win public office. Glassman’s money has bought attention, but attention is not the same as trust, and Arizona Republicans will likely notice the difference at the ballot box.