The Trump Assassination Attempt: How Will It Impact Our Elections?

Photo Credit: Evan Vucci, AP

We don’t have to tell you what happened last Saturday in Pennsylvania; the shot heard round the world that came quite literally one inch away from upending everything as we know it in American politics. At the time of writing there is still plenty we do not know, including the shooter’s motives, so we will not speculate. We also want to take a moment to acknowledge the attendees that were impacted; as of the time of writing, one is dead and two were critically injured, and our thoughts go out to their loved ones.

All that said, this monumental event is bound to have a significant impact not just on national politics, but also our local ones. Elected officials and candidates from across the political spectrum have made statements, focused on prayer for Trump (from the right) and condemning political violence (from both sides, but a primary focus on the left). But now, it’s worth considering how this will impact our elections.

While Arizona has been amongst the most significant of swing states for the last two election cycles, recent polling has shown that that may no longer be the case this election. In a composite of polls, it appears as though Trump has held a small lead in the state; then the disastrous (for Biden) debate happened and Biden’s numbers took an additional hit.

The assassination attempt is sure to provide a bump not just to Trump but those in his orbit, as his defiant fist-shaking and cries to “fight!” are undoubtedly positive for his image. However, how much of the benefit will go towards only Trump? Kari Lake is already too well known for opinions to change much. Perhaps Republican Congressional candidates in contested seats will get a boost, such as David Schweikert, but Trump being his own orbit despite others trying to take advantage of his wake may make that impact relatively minimal. Candidates in non-partisan races but stick out as being the most Republican, such as Lisa Borowsky, could very well benefit from increased turnout from Republicans. 

That said, in our quick news cycle where news items traditionally are forgotten within a week, it’s not hard to believe that this item will be mostly in the rear view come November, but likely less so than most normal news items for obvious reasons. But one news item that could steal the spotlight and shift momentum? President Biden announcing that he will no longer run for re-election and passing the torch to someone new, likely Vice President Harris.

Arizonans are known for splitting their ballots (which we will talk about later this week) and the benefit will likely accrue mostly to Trump. At this phase, it seems that Joe Biden has essentially no chance of winning this election, especially considering the actions of Saturday. But a new candidate? That could very well change everything.