PHOENIX (September 16th, 2020)- Former Astronaut Mark Kelly opened up a 10-point lead on Sen. Martha McSally in one of the most expensive and closely watched Senate races in the nation.
According to a recent survey by OH Predictive Insights, Kelly earned the support of 52 percent of likely voters in an effort to finish the final two years of the late-Sen. John McCain’s term. In comparison, incumbent-Republican Martha McSally sits at 42 percent.
|The Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) – a tracking poll of Arizona likely voters – shows McSally closely tracking President Trump. Dating back to August 2019, OH Predictive Insights has polled both the Senate and Presidential races in Arizona eight times. This September survey is one of only two over that period not to show McSally underperforming Trump.|
“Sen. McSally’s barrage of attacks against Mark Kelly seemed to be working last month,'” says OHPI Chief of Research Mike Noble. “However, Kelly is now deploying his vast war chest to fight back, which is boosting his fortunes.”
Just last month, McSally appeared to be gaining ground against Kelly, narrowing her deficit in the race to only 5 points. The reason behind her brief improvement in August, followed by this September slide, can be explained by looking at the voting intentions of Independents in the state. As we pointed out in our August release, that month’s survey saw noticeable increases in “undecided” Independent voters and decreases in Kelly-supporting Independents. Over the past month, however, it appears most of those tentative Kelly supporters have returned to his corner instead of moving further towards McSally.