Summary
The survey results of 800 likely voters in Florida clearly show that Democratic Senator Bill Nelson would
be vulnerable in a general election against Republican Rick Scott. On the ballot, Rick Scott has a 1-point
lead (47% to 46%). Rick Scott has a stronger favorable rating than Bill Nelson who is underperforming on
key benchmarks for an incumbent. This race would be one of the most highly competitive and watched
races in the country. With the right amount of resources, Rick Scott would be able to defeat Bill Nelson.
Key Findings
Bill Nelson is under 50% on the ballot, which is a sign of a vulnerable incumbent.
Rick Scott has a 1-point lead on Bill Nelson (47% to 46%) with 6% undecided.
The ballot is heavily polarized along party lines with Rick Scott leading among Republicans 84% to
12% while Bill Nelson is ahead 80% to 15% among Democrats.
Non-Party-Affiliated voters lean in favor of Rick Scott 46% to 44% on the ballot.
The majority has a favorable opinion of Rick Scott (53% favorable to 36% unfavorable).
Bill Nelson’s favorables are significantly under 50% (41% favorable to 25% unfavorable), which is
a troubling indicator for an incumbent. It’s apparent voters aren’t that excited about Bill Nelson.
Methodology
This Florida statewide survey was conducted among 800 likely voters between March 10 and 13, 2018.
In addition, an oversample was conducted among 76 likely voters in targeted media markets. The
oversample was weighted proportionately into the original 800 sample. All interviews were conducted
by professional interviewers via telephone. The sample included a mix of 59% landline and 41% cell
phone interviews. Interview selection was at random within predetermined election units. These units
were structured to statistically correlate with actual voter distributions in a general election. The
accuracy of the sample of 800 likely voters is within +/- 3.4% at a 95% confidence interval. The results in
this summary have been rounded and may not equal 100%.